2024 NBA playoff tiers How do the eight remaining teams stack up

Du Plessis I dedicate the Man of the Match to Yash Dayal

With the first round of the NBA playoffs in the books, it's time to rerank the biggest threats to win this year's Larry O'Brien trophy.

So far, injuries have been the dominant storyline of the postseason, particularly in the Eastern Conference, as recent MVPs Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid both saw their teams eliminated in the first round. Giannis watched the entire Milwaukee Bucks series from the sidelines, while Embiid labored at less than 100 percent in a difficult series against the New York Knicks -- the Philadelphia 76ers likely would have had a higher seed and avoided the Knicks in the first round had Embiid been healthy all season.

Even the East favorite was hit by injury: The Boston Celtics saw starting center Kristaps Porzingis hobble off with a calf strain during Game 4 of their five-game series win over the Miami Heat.

Out West, the Minnesota Timberwolves continued their undefeated playoff run into the second round by stealing Game 1 and home-court advantage from the Denver Nuggets. The performance showed their championship bona fides and raised questions about the defending champion Nuggets, who have yet to impress over a full 48 minutes this postseason.

Based on what we've seen so far in the regular season and throughout the playoffs, let's put the eight remaining teams in tiers based on their chances of winning it all.

Tier 1: Boston Celtics

As the Celtics repeatedly proved in the remainder of their five-game blowout of the injury-hampered Heat, any concern over Boston dropping Game 2 at home because of a combination of complacency and record shooting by Miami was misplaced. The only real question mark for the Celtics comes from Porzingis' tricky soleus strain.

The good news for Boston is that injuries elsewhere in the East have produced a favorable path to the Finals. The Celtics shouldn't need Porzingis to get past the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round. A possible Eastern Conference finals showdown against the Knicks would be trickier, but that gives Porzingis a couple more weeks to get healthy.

Tier 2: Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota's impressive Game 1 win has officially made the West wide open after Denver entered the series as the clear favorite to go to the Finals. The Nuggets never trailed a series in last year's title run and won with the advantage of home court in all three series. They've lost it now and won't have it in a potential conference finals matchup against Oklahoma City if they advance.

Should it have been a concern that the Nuggets could never pull away from the Lakers in their 4-1 series win? Zach Kram of the Ringer noted that no eventual champion in the past decade has played such a close first round, which remains true if you adjust for opponent ability. While the Lakers' 47 wins were relatively high for a first-round opponent of an eventual champion -- and more wins than any team Denver faced in the 2023 playoffs -- their plus-0.6 net rating was more typical.

The best recent comparison for the Nuggets-Lakers series might involve another defending champ. Coming off their 2016 title, the LeBron James-led Cavaliers beat the Indiana Pacers in what was (sorry, 2023 Lakers) actually the closest sweep ever, with the four games decided by a combined 16 points. Cleveland then romped through the rest of the East with a 12-1 record before running into the Golden State Warriors, perhaps the best team in NBA history after adding Kevin Durant, in the Finals.

Of course, the Cavaliers never faced another team like the Timberwolves en route to the Finals. An underdog entering the first round against the experienced and talented Phoenix Suns, Minnesota systematically dismantled them in a sweep. Despite foul trouble Saturday, Karl-Anthony Towns is enjoying the best postseason run of his career, while Anthony Edwards has been the MVP of the playoffs and Rudy Gobert is supplying the game-altering presence we expect from the favorite to win this season's Defensive Player of the Year.

What we've seen so far tells us the Timberwolves are capable of winning a championship.

Tier 3: Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder's opening-round sweep was impressive in its own right. Despite limited playoff experience, Oklahoma City showcased its potential by shutting down New Orleans Pelicans star Brandon Ingram and sweeping without star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing at his best. The Thunder will have home-court advantage the remainder of the West playoffs. Oklahoma City is down only a tier because we have yet to see the Thunder against a playoff opponent as good as Denver or Minnesota.

Tier 4: Dallas Mavericks, New York Knicks

There's certainly a case to be made for putting the Mavericks in Tier 3 based on the way they've played since adding Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington Jr. at the trade deadline. The pair of easy wins against the Kawhi Leonard-less LA Clippers to close out the series at home was a validation of how the Mavericks have remade their rotation via trade over the past 15 months. Title odds at ESPN BET have Dallas even with Oklahoma City.

At the same time, it's easy to overstate the chances of a lower seed winning a series without home-court advantage, as we saw when the Suns were favored to beat the Timberwolves in the first round. As the lowest remaining seed in the West, the Mavericks would have to win two more series on the road -- against far tougher competition -- after doing so in round one. And they'll have to do it without key reserve Maxi Kleber, who was diagnosed with a Grade 3 injury to the AC joint of his right shoulder Saturday, according to ESPN's Tim MacMahon.

On Sunday, Dallas announced that Kleber will be reevaluated in three weeks, ruling him out for the second round and the first half of the conference finals should the Mavericks get that far. Without Kleber, Dallas has fewer options for going small if Gafford and Dereck Lively II get pulled out of the paint by Thunder counterpart Chet Holmgren.

After taking the risk of facing the Sixers in the opening round by winning their regular-season finale to claim the No. 2 seed, the Knicks are now favored to make their first conference finals appearance since 2000. As in 2013, the last time New York won 50-plus games, the Indiana Pacers stand in the way. This version of the Knicks is far more playoff-tested and, after a physical, six-game matchup with Philadelphia, should enjoy facing the more perimeter-oriented Pacers.

At some point, fatigue will become a concern for New York, which had three players (Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby) average at least 41.6 minutes per game in the opening round. That's more likely to be an issue if the Knicks reach the conference finals.

Tier 5: Indiana Pacers, Cleveland Cavaliers

Despite the Pacers finishing out the series at home, their inability to put away a Milwaukee Bucks team playing without both Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard in five games was a troubling indicator as Indiana looks ahead to a matchup with a more talented and equally determined New York team.

The Pacers took two of three against the Knicks in the regular season, but Anunoby did not play in any of the games. Indiana's first win came with New York shorthanded after completing the Anunoby trade earlier in the day, and the second came with both Knicks centers (Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson) sidelined, meaning Taj Gibson started and played 19 scoreless minutes.

Cleveland is the biggest underdog in Round 2 after needing seven games to outlast an inexperienced Orlando Magic team. The Cavaliers did take their only home matchup with Boston in March, coming back from a 16-point deficit entering the fourth quarter, but had the worst record of any team to win a playoff series.